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Republicans hold a voter “engagement advantage” ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, although not as much as four years ago before the party won control of the U.S. House, a study released today says.
The report by the Pew Research Center in Washington also showed that neither party has a significant voter-preference advantage, with 45 percent of those surveyed saying they’ll support the Republican in their U.S. House district or are leaning that way, and 47 percent opting for the Democrat or likely to do so.
That’s similar to Pew survey results at this point in 2010, before a Republican “wave” election that resulted in the party gaining 63 seats in the House amid higher turnout among its base and older voters.
“At this point in the last two midterms, voter-engagement trends were decisively in one party’s favor -- Republicans in 2010, Democrats in 2006,” said Carroll Doherty, Pew’s director of political research. “It’s very different this year. Republicans have an advantage, but nothing like their edge in 2010 or the Democrats had four years earlier.”
In another measure of engagement, the survey showed that 45 percent of registered voters who plan to support the Republican in their district say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in prior congressional elections, compared with 37 percent of those who plan to vote for a Democrat. That’s smaller than the 13-percentage-point enthusiasm advantage Republicans held at this point four years ago.
Six Seats
Republicans are expected to maintain their House majority, and a net gain of six Senate seats will give the party control of that chamber. Such an outcome would alter Washington’s political calculus, putting Republicans in position to stall President Barack Obama’s nominees to executive and judicial posts and thwart other administration initiatives.
A falloff in turnout is the biggest threat Democrats face in the midterms, when electorates tend to be older and whiter, two constituencies their party hasn’t won in recent elections. The political environment is also potentially threatening to Democrats, with Obama plagued by low approval ratings and the U.S. economy undergoing a slow recovery.
On party preference, the study showed wide gender, educational and income differences. Republicans hold a 10-percentage-point advantage among men, 50 percent to 40 percent, while Democrats have a 12-point advantage among women, 52 percent to 40 percent.
Those with family incomes between $50,000 and $74,999 favor the Republican in their district by a wide margin, 57 percent to 33 percent. Democrats have a 13-point-advantage, 52 percent to 39 percent, among voters with incomes of less than $30,000.
Against Obama
As was the case four years ago, Obama is a powerful motivating force for Republicans, with about half of those who say they’ll vote for the party’s candidates considering their ballot as one “against” him, almost identical to a Pew survey taken in June 2010.
The president is less of a positive force for motivating his own party, with 36 percent of those planning to vote for the Democrat in their district viewing it as a vote for Obama, down from 44 percent in 2010.
Americans continue to hold Congress in low regard, according to the study. Just 28 percent view it favorably, and a record high for a Pew survey of 55 percent say the lawmakers have accomplished less than usual. By a margin of 44 percent to 28 percent, those who say Congress has done less than usual blame Republican leaders rather than Democratic leaders.
That mood has boosted anti-incumbent sentiment, with just 48 percent of registered voters wanting to see their own representative re-elected, close to a two-decade low in a Pew survey.
The Pew report is based on a survey of 1,805 adults, including 1,420 registered voters, that was conducted July 8-14.
To contact the reporter on this story: John McCormick in Chicago at jmccormick16@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net Mark McQuillan, Don Frederick
The report by the Pew Research Center in Washington also showed that neither party has a significant voter-preference advantage, with 45 percent of those surveyed saying they’ll support the Republican in their U.S. House district or are leaning that way, and 47 percent opting for the Democrat or likely to do so.
That’s similar to Pew survey results at this point in 2010, before a Republican “wave” election that resulted in the party gaining 63 seats in the House amid higher turnout among its base and older voters.
“At this point in the last two midterms, voter-engagement trends were decisively in one party’s favor -- Republicans in 2010, Democrats in 2006,” said Carroll Doherty, Pew’s director of political research. “It’s very different this year. Republicans have an advantage, but nothing like their edge in 2010 or the Democrats had four years earlier.”
In another measure of engagement, the survey showed that 45 percent of registered voters who plan to support the Republican in their district say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in prior congressional elections, compared with 37 percent of those who plan to vote for a Democrat. That’s smaller than the 13-percentage-point enthusiasm advantage Republicans held at this point four years ago.
Six Seats
Republicans are expected to maintain their House majority, and a net gain of six Senate seats will give the party control of that chamber. Such an outcome would alter Washington’s political calculus, putting Republicans in position to stall President Barack Obama’s nominees to executive and judicial posts and thwart other administration initiatives.
A falloff in turnout is the biggest threat Democrats face in the midterms, when electorates tend to be older and whiter, two constituencies their party hasn’t won in recent elections. The political environment is also potentially threatening to Democrats, with Obama plagued by low approval ratings and the U.S. economy undergoing a slow recovery.
On party preference, the study showed wide gender, educational and income differences. Republicans hold a 10-percentage-point advantage among men, 50 percent to 40 percent, while Democrats have a 12-point advantage among women, 52 percent to 40 percent.
Those with family incomes between $50,000 and $74,999 favor the Republican in their district by a wide margin, 57 percent to 33 percent. Democrats have a 13-point-advantage, 52 percent to 39 percent, among voters with incomes of less than $30,000.
Against Obama
As was the case four years ago, Obama is a powerful motivating force for Republicans, with about half of those who say they’ll vote for the party’s candidates considering their ballot as one “against” him, almost identical to a Pew survey taken in June 2010.
The president is less of a positive force for motivating his own party, with 36 percent of those planning to vote for the Democrat in their district viewing it as a vote for Obama, down from 44 percent in 2010.
Americans continue to hold Congress in low regard, according to the study. Just 28 percent view it favorably, and a record high for a Pew survey of 55 percent say the lawmakers have accomplished less than usual. By a margin of 44 percent to 28 percent, those who say Congress has done less than usual blame Republican leaders rather than Democratic leaders.
That mood has boosted anti-incumbent sentiment, with just 48 percent of registered voters wanting to see their own representative re-elected, close to a two-decade low in a Pew survey.
The Pew report is based on a survey of 1,805 adults, including 1,420 registered voters, that was conducted July 8-14.
To contact the reporter on this story: John McCormick in Chicago at jmccormick16@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net Mark McQuillan, Don Frederick
No, Trump DID NOT call the coronavirus a 'hoax.'
What's True
During a Feb. 28, 2020, campaign rally in South Carolina, President Donald Trump likened the Democrats' criticism of his administration's response to the new coronavirus outbreak to their efforts to impeach him, saying "this is their new hoax." During the speech he also seemed to downplay the severity of the outbreak, comparing it to the common flu.
What's False
Despite creating some confusion with his remarks, Trump did not call the coronavirus itself a hoax.
Even the liars at Snopes could not bring themselves to agree with certain people here on DA https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/
And what w
Simple question for leftists
How many more people need to die in England, France, Sweden, Germany- and very likely, an increasingly long list of other nations- before you figure out that ISLAM is the problem?
WattsUpWithThat recognized among top science blogs
WattsUpWithThat- the top climate skeptic blog on the internet- has been chosen as one of the top 100 science blogs!
Anthony Watts' article plus comments https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/28/wuwt-awarded-top-science-blog-status-beats-realclimate-nyt-guardian-huffpo/comment-page-1/#comment-2308295
The science site itself http://blog.feedspot.com/science_blogs/
Pro-AGW type admits a truth about his side.
'The great oddity of the climate science debate
“Ad hominem attacks aren’t a final line of defense, they’re argument #1. …It’s about an attitude, the sense that righteousness excuses you from the need for hard thinking and that any questioning of the righteous is treason.” {By Paul Krugman. Quite true, as any skeptic quickly learns when discussing climate with an activist.}
Activists consider forecasts of models as like the Word of God.' ~ paul krugman
You KNOW something is right with the world when pro-'all-catastrophic, all-the-time and all-YOUR-fault climate change' activist (and supposedly economist)
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More engaged to form lynch mobs and pretend to be " Christian".